Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

Basically it couldn't be forced. It had to allow a failed Stalinist policy to expose itself, then come from within. The war did, however, polarize the sides to force the issue. The question with Iraq is, do the leaders (including tribal) of Iraq understand what progressing toward joining the core is all about and do they and the populace want to make that jump. The Kurds are well ahead of the rest of Iraq in that vain.

Very good news on Iraq. It makes the Congress's rejection of Normal Trade Relations with Vietnam even more troubling. An NTR would continue to empower to market reformers, besides all the other good things it would do. That doesn't stop the know-nothings, however :-(

Which of course means that there was not the slightest reason to try to replace France with Diem all along.

Well, there's $125 billion 1960s dollars, 58,000 US lives, 3-4 million Vietnamese lives wasted on nothing.

Exactly.

RKKA - You're trying to be too clever by half.

The 1974 Foreign Relations Act threw away a lot, but the war

1. Bought Saigon time it needed to create human capital in a market economy. Hanoi isn't poorer because northern Vietnamese are stupider -- Hanoi is poorer because it lacks the history of openness the US defense of the Republic of Vietnam provided
2. Stalled the advance of Communism in South-East Asia. The next two "communist" wars in Indochina were each between Communist countries (the Vietnam-Cambodia and Vietnam-China wars). Our resolve shattered what was left of a Communist moral center.
3. Relatedly, saved the Kingdom of Thailand and the Republic of Singapore from experiencing the same self-destruction that all communsit states endured. Singapore and Thailand became exemplars for China and Vietnam to follow.
4. Also there was this telegram you may have heard of. It's something of a footnote.

Just imagine where the South Vietnamese would be today had we been able to achieve a result similar to Korea with a divided country.....one half free, the other half Communist.

That was our goal, although it became muddled by Leftist claims that we were in Vietnam for oil, land, or military bases.

But that's all water uinder the bridge now. I'm very pleased that the Vietnamese may yet achieve freedom and prosperity. Some of my friends gave their lives for that very thing.

"The 1974 Foreign Relations Act threw away a lot"

The South Vietnamese regime lost the war despite getting around $700 million from the US in FY74. They missed out on some of that since they didn't make it to the end of the fiscal year. But the point is, they lost their own war, and the 1974 Foreign Relations Act didn't throw away anything.