OPINION: On negotiating with Tehran, by Henry A. Kissinger, International Herald Tribune, November 23, 2006Pretty decent starter piece by Kissinger that gets everyone a bit closer to realistic expectations on Iran, which is sort of in its Khrushchevian "we will bury you" (at least in the Shiite belt) bragging phase. To a great extent, all the talks need to do is buy us time and a forum for starting what will inevitably be a long-term forum for regional security discussion, much like the OSCE forum was in Europe.
No, this forum won't magically make our rapid departure from Iraq possible, and no, it won't stop Iran from getting the bomb. Keep those two realities firmly in your head: we won't be leaving Iraq (even though our role and numbers will change) and Iran will be getting the bomb.
The regional forum concept is not designed for magical outcomes, but slowly building the collective will for permanent security regimes to arise in the region that settle the endemic conflicts and allow enough political stability for economic connectivity to ensue, which in turn will fuel social change already underway and political change that seethes just below the surface (the great fears of the despots).
In many ways, the Big Bang strategy continues to work by playing a forcing function: forcing the emergence of negotiations, deals, fora, etc. that are required for any sort of security advance in the region. If Iraq had gone well, dictators quaking in their boots would have moved in this direction out of fear. As Iraq goes badly, dictators quaking in their boots are moving in this direction out of fear. At this minimum, the Big Bang was always going to work: the only question was how much pain was going to be involved and what threat that pain would pose to America's will to continue (which, for now, holds up incredibly well--unless I'm missing the mass demonstrations in the streets and the constitutional crisis in DC).
Realism is just idealism stretched over time. It is a belief in inevitabilities that prefers inaction to action and cynicism to morality. But such delays do not constitute diversions much less defeats.
Remember what Zhou Enlai said about the French Revolution and decide which side of history you want to be on: those who connect to freedom or those who disconnect to achieve tyranny.
To me, the outcome will never be in doubt, just the timing.
Thanks to TurcoPundit for sending this in.
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Comments (4)
I refer to this post on my blog: Austin Centrist.
I may begin posting on "The Moderate Voice" one of the leading moderate blogs.
Thanks for being one of the wise adults in my life.
Posted by Paul Silver | November 24, 2006 6:39 PM
"Realism is just idealism stretched over time."
That is a powerful observation and helps to put some current events into perspective. But the question of how much time is also important. As Keynes noted (in response to the Monetarists, perhaps?) "Long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead."
In fairness, you stated that you see China assuming this role in a generation. God, I hope you are right as that is one of the most encouraging geo-political predictions I have heard.
I would ask how you see the long run in the middle east and if it will still be too early to tell when my (almost teen) sons are in their 40's like me. Or will it still be too early to tell 180 years later as Zhou remarked to Nixon regarding the Frech Revolution?
Posted by john | November 24, 2006 7:47 PM
john - Keynes is dead. I am living in the long run he dismissed as irrelevant. I'm not so fond of "after me, the deluge" as the famous professor (who was childless) was. I have three kids. So what kind of long run do you want to seed for your kids. I hope to do a better job than the last generations who have set us on such an unsustainable course.
Posted by TM Lutas | November 26, 2006 8:32 PM
Germany has suggested an OSCE for the Greater Middle East since the early 90s, but various US governments never liked the idea. They saw it as a threat to US dominance in the region and/or considered it as wishful thinking that such an organization would effectively deal with conflicts.
Sorry, but perhaps it is time to bring up the Churchill quote: "America always does the right thing -- once all other options have been tried."
Posted by Josh | November 27, 2006 9:38 AM